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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED AUG 09 1995
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/07.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A
TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST WITH A WELL DEVELOPED RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF THE STORM.  ALL MODELS SHOW THE 72 H POSITION WEST NORTHWEST OF
THE INITIAL POINT.  THE ONE OUTLIER IS THE AVIATION MODEL WHICH ALSO
MOVES IT WESTNORTHWEST...BUT MUCH SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS.  THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BRUSH WITH THE TIP OF BAJA APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING
AS THE DISTANCE CLOSES...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY HAVE TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WARNING TOMORROW.
 
WIND SPEED IS 50 OR 55 KNOTS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AS THE TRACK REMAINS OVER WARM
WATER AND VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE SMALL.
 
JARRELL
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/0300Z 19.7N 108.5W    55 KTS
12HR VT     10/1200Z 20.4N 109.2W    60 KTS
24HR VT     11/0000Z 21.3N 110.4W    65 KTS
36HR VT     11/1200Z 22.4N 111.7W    65 KTS
48HR VT     12/0000Z 23.0N 113.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     13/0000Z 23.0N 116.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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