ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...                                
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                   
8 PM PDT TUE AUG 08 1995                                            
                                                                    
CENTER POSITION...ESTIMATED FROM SHIP WITH 250/33 KT AT 06Z...IS A
BIT TO THE EAST OF THE SATELLITE FIXES.  INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR
350/5 KT.  A CORE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS EVIDENT AND TSAF AND
SAB INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL
STORM FLOSSIE.  FLOSSIE REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR.  A LARGE MCS IS ALSO NOTED JUST NORTH OF THE STORM.   

THE STORM IS CENTERED NOT FAR OFFSHORE.  THE GFDL MOVES THE STORM
INLAND TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN 12 HOURS FROM 00Z.  ALTHOUGH THERE
IS NO SIGN OF THAT YET...THE SYSTEM IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST
THAT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING OR WATCH COULD BE NEEDED LATER
TODAY...PARTICULARLY IF AN OTHERWISE UNEXPECTED EASTWARD COMPONENT
IS OBSERVED.

RAPPAPORT                                                           
                                                               
                                                                    
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS                                    
                                                                    
INITIAL     09/0300Z 17.4N 106.6W    30 KTS                         
12HR VT     09/1200Z 17.9N 107.1W    35 KTS                         
24HR VT     10/0000Z 18.7N 107.9W    40 KTS                         
36HR VT     10/1200Z 19.3N 108.7W    45 KTS                         
48HR VT     11/0000Z 19.8N 109.6W    50 KTS                         
72HR VT     12/0000Z 20.3N 111.0W    60 KTS                         
                                                                    
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