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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 1994
 
A FEW DEEPER CBS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ILL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER.  WITH TSAF AND SAB BOTH PRESENTING
DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.0, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED A BIT TO
30 KNOTS.  THE FORWARD MOTION IS JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT
ABOUT 15 KNOTS.

CIRRUS TRACERS SUGGEST A LITTLE LIGHTER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHILE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NOW PASSING TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LARGE TROUGH ALOFT WHOSE AXIS IS ALONG 140W.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS APPROACHING THE TD FROM JUST NORTH OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH 72
HOURS AND 30 KNOTS WILL BE RETAINED FOR THE INTENSITY, HOWEVER, JUST
IN CASE THE FLARE-UP IN CONVECTION IS NOT TEMPORARY.  THE BAM
GUIDANCE AND THE QLM CHARGE TOWARD THE WNW TO NW AND BY 72 HOURS ARE
LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES TO THE SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THESE
MODELS, HOWEVER, START OFF WITH TOO GREAT OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT
TO THEIR MOTION.  THE OTHER MODELS, INCLUDING THE AVN AND P91E ARE
SLOWER AND NEARLY DUE WESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WNW AT AN INTERMEDIATE SPEED.  
  
THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CROSSED 140 DEGREES WEST AND IS NOW
IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE BASIN.  FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE
ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/0300Z 11.8N 140.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     03/1200Z 11.7N 142.6W    30 KTS
24HR VT     04/0000Z 12.0N 145.9W    30 KTS
36HR VT     04/1200Z 12.5N 149.3W    30 KTS
48HR VT     05/0000Z 13.3N 152.7W    30 KTS
72HR VT     06/0000Z 15.0N 157.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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