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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN JUL 31 1994

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY.  ANIMATION OF SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC ROTATION...AND THERE IS SUFFICIENT
CURVATURE IN THE DEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUD BANDS TO WARRANT A DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION OF T1.5 FROM SATELLITE ANALYSTS AT BOTH TSAF AND SAB.

THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  
THE CYCLONE HAS GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE BUT OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTH.  SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
DEPRESSION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH ALONG ABOUT 130W LONGITUDE. 
HOWEVER THE NMC GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTS THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THIS TROUGH WILL FILL AND THAT AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL TEND TO
BUILD WESTWARD ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION.  MODEL
FORECASTS OF TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL FLOWS ARE OF COURSE QUESTIONABLE. 
THEREFORE THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE AND ONLY SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/13.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO MEDIUM DEPTH STEERING AND PRETTY MUCH MAINTAINS THE
CURRENT MOTION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  THE NHC91 GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS
A SIMILAR TRACK.

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/2100Z 13.2N 125.8W    25 KTS
12HR VT     01/0600Z 13.8N 127.8W    30 KTS
24HR VT     01/1800Z 14.5N 130.3W    35 KTS
36HR VT     02/0600Z 15.2N 132.9W    40 KTS
48HR VT     02/1800Z 16.0N 135.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     03/1800Z 17.0N 140.5W    45 KTS
 
 
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