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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU AUG 11 1994
 
TEN-E NOW HAS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND DISTINCT
RAINBANDS.  THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE UP TO 2.5 AND THE SYSTEM IS
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM JOHN.  THE CYCLONE HAS ACCELERATED TO 12
KT ON A HEADING OF ABOUT 275 DEGREES.

THE TRACK MODELS AND OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL SHOW A STEADY FORWARD
MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.  AGAIN FOLLOWING THE SHIFOR OUTPUT,
STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS IS
INDICATED.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/2100Z 11.3N 100.1W    35 KTS
12HR VT     12/0600Z 11.5N 102.0W    40 KTS
24HR VT     12/1800Z 11.9N 104.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     13/0600Z 12.5N 106.6W    55 KTS
48HR VT     13/1800Z 13.1N 108.7W    65 KTS
72HR VT     14/1800Z 14.5N 112.5W    70 KTS
 
 
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