ZCZC MIAWRKPD1 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU AUG 11 1994
 
TD ELEVEN-E HAS INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY AND IS NOW TROPICAL
STORM ILEANA.  THE SYSTEM HAS A WELL-DEFINED BANDED STRUCTURE AROUND
A CENTRAL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 45 KT BY TSAF AND SAB, AND IN THIS ADVISORY.  THE STORM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NW AT ABOUT 7 KT.

THE 1200 UTC MODEL SHOWS A 700 TO 500 MB SE JET MOVING OVER THE
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE MORE RAPID FORWARD MOTION OF
TROPICAL STORM JOHN (FORMERLY TD TEN-E) TO THE SOUTHEAST MAY BE AN
INDICATION OF THAT FLOW.  THE DYNAMIC TRACK MODELS RESPOND BY
ACCELERATING ILEANA NORTHWESTWARD TO ALMOST 20 KT.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS A SMALLER ACCELERATION, BUT STILL ENDS UP WELL TO THE
WEST OF THE PREVIOUS 72 HOUR FORECAST POINT.

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY
MOVE WESTWARD.  IF THIS OCCURS, ILEANA WILL BE IN AN ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT FAVORING STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 
THEREAFTER, ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE STORM WILL ENCOUNTER SSTS
CONSISTENT WITH A WEAKENING TREND.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/2100Z 17.6N 108.6W    45 KTS
12HR VT     12/0600Z 18.3N 109.4W    50 KTS
24HR VT     12/1800Z 19.4N 110.9W    60 KTS
36HR VT     13/0600Z 20.6N 112.7W    70 KTS
48HR VT     13/1800Z 21.9N 115.6W    65 KTS
72HR VT     14/1800Z 23.0N 122.0W    40 KTS
 
 
NNNN