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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON JUL 19 1993

BASED ON SATELLITE PICTURES...EUGENES INTENSITY HAS PEAKED AND IS
BEGINNING TO DECREASE. THE CURRENT MOTION REMAINS WNW AT ABOUT 12
KT.

THE 1200 UTC AVN MODEL SWINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT EASTWARD JUST
NORTH OF EUGENE...AND THEN SHOWS INCREASING TROUGHING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO WEST OF THE HURRICANE.  NHC SHEAR
CALCULATIONS INDICATE A WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE INCREASING
TO ABOUT 30 KT BY 72 HOURS.   THE BAM MODELS REFLECT THIS WITH THE
BAMD ENDING UP 300 NM EAST OF THE BAMS.  OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS
A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT HEADING BUT A VARIETY OF FORWARD
SPEEDS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON ANTICIPATED RAPID
WEAKENING DUE TO SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS...AND IS A TRANSITION FROM
BAMD TO BAMM IN THE TRACK.

THE RATE OF WEAKENING FORECAST IS GREATER THAN INDICATED BY SHIFOR.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/2100Z 15.7N 124.1W   105 KTS
12HR VT     20/0600Z 16.5N 125.8W    95 KTS
24HR VT     20/1800Z 17.4N 128.1W    85 KTS
36HR VT     21/0600Z 18.2N 130.4W    70 KTS
48HR VT     21/1800Z 18.9N 132.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     22/1800Z 19.5N 136.0W    45 KTS