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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ZEKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 AM PST FRI OCT 30 1992
 
LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 KTS AT SAB..TO 45
KTS AT NHC..TO 55 KTS AT AFGWC.  ANIMATION OF ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR IS PROVING TOO MUCH FOR ZEKE
...AND A LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOW EXPOSED WELL TO THE WEST OF A
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THEREFORE...WE WILL
GO WITH THE SAB ESTIMATE WHICH SHOWS WEAKENING AND LOWER THE INITIAL
INTENSITY TO 35 KTS.  THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE
...KEEPING THE CYCLONE AT MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH FOR A LITTLE LONGER
JUST IN CASE THE CONVECTION FLARES UP AGAIN...AS OCCURRED YESTERDAY. 
HOWEVER...IF THE SUSPECTED WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES...THE SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

INITIAL POSITION IS ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT...BASED ON THE EXPOSED CENTER. 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 075/08...AND THE CURRENT TRACK IS A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  NMC AVIATION MODEL
INDICATES THE STEERING FLOW BELOW 500 MB BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY
WITH TIME.  CURRENT TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH P91E.

MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0900Z 19.7N 112.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     30/1800Z 20.0N 111.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     31/0600Z 20.6N 109.7W    35 KTS
36HR VT     31/1800Z 21.5N 107.8W    30 KTS
48HR VT     01/0600Z 22.5N 106.0W    DISSIPATED