ZCZC MIAWRKPD2 LOC TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM ...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY... TROPICAL STORM ZEKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1 PM PST THU OCT 29 1992 ZEKES LARGEST AND MOST SUSTAINED BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRED THIS MORNING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REDEVELOPED UNDER THE CONVECTION AND BOTH TSAF AND SAB PROVIDED A DVORAK T-NUMBER OF 3.0. HENCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE RAISED TO 45 KT. THE CURRENT MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 055/7 KT. THE NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE SPREAD OF TRACKS. THE AVNO... QLM...AND BAMS REMAIN OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH 72 HOURS. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF ZEKE MOVING RIGHT ALONG. THE P91E IS ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER WHILE THE BAMD HAS THE REMNANTS IN TEXAS BY ABOUT 60 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS AN INTERMEDIATE SPEED AND HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK BECAUSE OF THE CENTER REDEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF ZEKE MAY PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...MOST OF THE CONVECTION AND PART OF THE CIRCULATION EXTENDS FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD THAT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO IS ISSUING A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF MOVEMENT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO BEING ISSUED FOR THE ADJACENT PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 45 KT...ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE APPROACH OF A BAND OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES WHICH COULD WEAKEN ZEKE. THE RADIUS OF 34 KT WINDS IS INCREASED TO 75 NM BASED ON AFGWC SSM/I ANALYSES. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED. IF ZEKE DOES COME ASHORE OVER THE MAINLAND THEN HEAVY RAINS WITH FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDES MAY OCCUR. RAPPAPORT FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 19.5N 114.9W 45 KTS 12HR VT 30/0600Z 20.1N 113.9W 45 KTS 24HR VT 30/1800Z 20.8N 112.2W 45 KTS 36HR VT 31/0600Z 21.7N 110.0W 45 KTS 48HR VT 31/1800Z 22.7N 106.8W 45 KTS 72HR VT 01/1800Z 24.0N 101.5W INLAND AND DISSIPATING