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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ZEKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 PM PST WED OCT 28 1992

CONVECTION HAS BEEN WAXING AND WANING IN ZEKE.  AT TIMES THE
CIRCULATION CENTER BECOMES EXPOSED...AND THEN A NEW BURST OF DEEP
CLOUDINESS COVERS THE CENTER AGAIN.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
STILL T2.5...I.E. A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM.  A WEAKENING TREND IS
PREDICTED...AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...BECAUSE OF THE STRONG
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM.
APPARENTLY THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION OF ZEKE HAS DELAYED ITS ENCOUNTER
WITH THE BRUNT OF THESE WESTERLIES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/03.  MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATE A TURN TO THE RIGHT ALONG WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. 
HOWEVER THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE TRACK MAY BE EVEN
FARTHER TO THE RIGHT...AND EVEN STAY A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE TIP OF
BAJA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ZEKE DISSIPATING OVER MAINLAND
MEXICO.  OF COURSE...ALL OF THIS MAY BE ACADEMIC IF ZEKE DISSIPATES
DUE TO SHEARING BEFORE NEARING THE COAST.  

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0300Z 18.7N 116.5W    35 KTS
12HR VT     29/1200Z 19.0N 116.2W    30 KTS
24HR VT     30/0000Z 20.5N 114.5W    25 KTS
36HR VT     30/1200Z 22.5N 111.0W    25 KTS
48HR VT     31/0000Z 23.5N 106.5W...DISSIPATING