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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ZEKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 AM PST WED OCT 28 1992
 
AGAIN TONIGHT WE HAVE A BURSTING PATTERN WITH THE CENTER NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOVING MORE TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST NOW. 
ALL TRACK FORECAST MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
WITH ALL BUT CLIPER AND THE STATISTICAL MODELS SHOWING TRACKS OVER
OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK
IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH EMPHASIS ON BAM
MID WHICH IS PRETTY MUCH A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS MODEL TRACKS.

IT IS SURPRISING THAT THIS SYSTEM STILL EXISTS IN THE STRONG
SHEARING ENVIRONMENT.  0000Z AVN 200 MB PROGS SHOW STRONG WESTERLIES
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.  THUS...A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED.  IT
IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ZEKE WILL BE DESTROYED PRIOR TO REACHING THE
BAJA PENINSULA BUT THE TRACK IS SHOWN TO 48 HOURS IN CASE IT
PERSISTS AS A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE INTO MEXICO.

GERRISH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0900Z 18.3N 116.5W    35 KTS
12HR VT     28/1800Z 19.5N 116.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     29/0600Z 21.5N 114.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     29/1800Z 23.5N 111.5W    25 KTS
48HR VT     30/0600Z 25.5N 107.0W    DISSIPATED