ZCZC MIAWRKPD2 LOC
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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ZEKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 PM PST TUE OCT 27 1992

LAST LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED THAT DEEP CONVECTION
HAD SHIFTED BACK OVER THE FORMERLY EXPOSED CENTER OF ZEKE. 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM METEOROLOGISTS AT TSAF AND SAB
ARE BOTH AT 35 KNOTS...SO ZEKE IS BEING RE-UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM AT THIS TIME.  THE INTENSIFICATION MAY HAVE BEEN IN RESPONSE
TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EAST OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
THE AREA.  BECAUSE THE STORM REMAINS IN A STRONG SHEARING
ENVIRONMENT...THE STRENGTHENING IS BELIEVED TO BE ONLY TEMPORARY AND
ZEKE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BACK TO DEPRESSION STATUS IN ABOUT 12
HOURS.

THE STORM IS NOW MOVING NORTH AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS AND THE CENTER HAS
BEEN RELOCATED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST
OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A BROAD
AREA OF WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF ZEKE AND THIS STEERING
PATTERN SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE
CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST PUTS THE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN BAJA AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  THIS TRACK IS BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM BAM AND NHC91 GUIDANCE.  THE DEEP BAM INDICATES A FASTER
MOTION BUT IN THE SAME GENERAL DIRECTION AS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
ON THE PROJECTED TRACK...ZEKE WOULD DISSIPATE INLAND OVER MEXICO
AFTER 48 HOURS.  ALTERNATIVELY...THE CYCLONE MIGHT MERELY DISSIPATE
DUE TO SHEARING...BEFORE THE PREDICTED LANDFALL OVER BAJA.

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0300Z 17.8N 116.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     28/1200Z 19.4N 116.8W    30 KTS
24HR VT     29/0000Z 21.2N 116.2W    30 KTS
36HR VT     29/1200Z 23.5N 114.5W    30 KTS
48HR VT     30/0000Z 26.0N 112.0W    25 KTS
72HR VT     31/0000Z...INLAND AND DISSPATED