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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZEKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 PM PST TUE OCT 27 1992
 
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES OVER ZEKE.  NEVERTHELESS...THE
DEPRESSION HAS GENERATED A LITTLE MORE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KT IN THIS ADVISORY.  THE PATH OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER HAS TURNED MORE TO THE NORTH...340/7 KT.
 
THE DYNAMIC TRACK MODELS STILL TURN ZEKE TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.  THIS MORNINGS AVNO AND QLM ARRIVE AT THE COAST AROUND 72
HOURS...WHILE THE BAM MODELS AND P91E CROSS THE COASTLINE BETWEEN
ABOUT 40 AND 60 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO
NEAR THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST AT 48 HOURS.  EVEN STRONGER SHEARING
CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED BY THE AVIATION MODEL ALONG THIS
COURSE...SO THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING STILL APPEAR TO
BE SMALL.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/2100Z 17.2N 117.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     28/0600Z 18.3N 117.4W    30 KTS
24HR VT     28/1800Z 20.2N 117.4W    30 KTS
36HR VT     29/0600Z 22.6N 116.8W    25 KTS
48HR VT     29/1800Z 25.0N 115.0W    25 KTS
72HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED