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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 PM PST SUN OCT 25 1992
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH BANDING FEATURES IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AROUND A SMALL AND RAGGED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 30 KNOTS...IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND THE AFGWC.  THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY
SINCE THE SYSTEM IS OVER WARM WATER.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/11.  1200Z NMC AVIATION MODEL SHOWS A
RIDGE BETWEEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE STRONG LOW CURRENTLY TO
THE WEST OF CALIFORNIA.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE GENERAL MOTION TOWARD
THE WNW TO CONTINUE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES NEAR THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE. 
CURRENT TRACK IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH BAMM.  THIS TRACK SPLITS
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN P91E AND BAMD.  BAMD ACTUALLY SHOWS
RECURVATURE BACK TO THE NE AFTER 48 HOURS.

MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/2100Z 13.2N 113.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     26/0600Z 13.6N 114.9W    40 KTS
24HR VT     26/1800Z 14.3N 117.1W    45 KTS
36HR VT     27/0600Z 15.0N 118.7W    55 KTS
48HR VT     27/1800Z 16.0N 120.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     28/1800Z 18.5N 121.0W    70 KTS