ZCZC MIAWRKPD2 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PST SUN OCT 25 1992
 
SATELLITE ANALYSTS HAVE BEEN PROVIDING CENTER FIXES TO THE POORLY
ORGANIZED TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF BAJA FOR OVER
THREE DAYS.  CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN THE DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE SUSPECTED CENTER...AND BOTH TSAF AND SAB ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON A T1.5.  THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.
 
THE SYSTEM IS OVER WARM WATER AND THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
BECOMING WELL ESTABLISHED.  THEREFORE...CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
 
SATELLITE DERIVED CENTER FIXES STILL SHOW SOME SCATTER SO THE
INITIAL MOTION MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED AFTER VIEWING MORE VISIBLE
IMAGERY.  BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 295/13.  THE STRONG
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE WEST OF CALIFORNIA WILL LIKLEY TURN THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM MORE TOWARD THE NORTH LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT TRACK WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH BAMD AND THE P91E TRACK PREDICTION MODELS.
 
MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/1600Z 13.1N 112.8W    25 KTS
12HR VT     26/0000Z 14.0N 114.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     26/1200Z 14.8N 116.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     27/0000Z 15.7N 117.3W    55 KTS
48HR VT     27/1200Z 16.5N 118.4W    65 KTS
72HR VT     28/1200Z 19.0N 119.0W    70 KTS