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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE VIRGIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN OCT 04 1992
 
BEST GUESS FROM IR SATELLITE PICTURES IS THAT VIRGIL IS ON THE COAST
ABOUT 55 TO 60 MILES SOUTHEAST FROM MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 0600Z. 
HOWEVER...THE 04/0600Z MANZANILLO SURFACE OBSERVATION REPORTED BY
PHONE TO US FROM MEXICO CITY WAS 210/09 KNOTS WITH 1007.6 MB...WHICH
DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH OF A HURRICANE IN THAT LOCATION. FOR NOW... WE
WILL CONCLUDE THAT VIRGIL IS EXTREMELY SMALL AND REDUCE THE WIND
RADII.

THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 TO 8
KNOTS.  WHILE THE QLM ACCELERATES THE CENTER ALONG THE EASTERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA... THE OTHER MODELS SHOW A MUCH SLOWER FORWARD MOTION
WITH DIVERGENT TRACKS AFTER SKIRTING THE CABO CORRIENTES PENINSULA. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE LATTER.

THE INTENSITY SCENARIO IS QUESTIONABLE BECAUSE OF THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LAND.  HOWEVER... THE PREVIOUS WEAKENING TREND APPEARS
TO REASONABLE...UNLESS THE CENTER REALLY IS OVER LAND AT THE PRESENT
TIME.

THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO CONTINUE THE CURRENT WARNINGS BUT THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING LIKELY WILL BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.  

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/0900Z 18.9N 104.2W    75 KTS
12HR VT     04/1800Z 19.5N 105.0W    60 KTS
24HR VT     05/0600Z 20.4N 105.9W    50 KTS
36HR VT     05/1800Z 21.2N 106.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     06/0600Z 22.0N 107.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     07/0600Z 23.5N 108.0W    45 KTS