ZCZC MIAWRKPD3 LOC TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM ...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-THREE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM PDT THU OCT 01 1992 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF ACAPULCO CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY CONCENTRATED WITH GOOD CYCLONIC CURVATURE AND STRONG ROTATION. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS BEING CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK SINCE THIS IS A NEW SYSTEM. BEST ESTIMATE FOR INITIAL MOTION IS 315/06. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE NHC91 GUIDANCE. A WEAKNESS IN THE DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW SEVERAL DEGREES NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION MAY COMPLICATE THE TRACK IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1200Z 14.0N 101.0W 30 KTS 12HR VT 01/1800Z 14.4N 101.5W 35 KTS 24HR VT 02/0600Z 15.0N 102.0W 40 KTS 36HR VT 02/1800Z 15.5N 102.5W 45 KTS 48HR VT 03/0600Z 16.2N 103.2W 50 KTS 72HR VT 04/0600Z 17.5N 104.0W 60 KTS