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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN SEP 06 1992
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS CLOSE TO
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  HOWEVER THE DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL NOT
WELL ORGANIZED INTO EITHER A BANDING OR CDO TYPE PATTERN.  THUS...WE
WILL NOT UPGRADE TO A TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280 TO 285/14 KTS.  THE TRACK FORECAST MODELS
ARE QUITE DIVERGENT DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF THE STEERING CURRENT. 
WHILE SHIFOR SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING...FOR NOW WE
WILL MAINTAIN ESSENTIALLY THAT IN OUR PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

SINCE THE POSITION AT 2100 UTC IS EXPECTED TO BE WEST OF 140W...THE
NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
IN HONOLULU HAWAII.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY THAT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

GERRISH

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/1500Z 12.0N 139.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     07/0000Z 12.4N 141.4W    35 KTS
24HR VT     07/1200Z 13.0N 143.8W    40 KTS
36HR VT     08/0000Z 13.5N 145.8W    40 KTS
48HR VT     08/1200Z 14.1N 147.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     09/1200Z 15.5N 151.0W    40 KTS