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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN SEP 06 1992

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS CLOSE TO
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  HOWEVER THE DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL NOT
WELL ORGANIZED INTO EITHER A BANDING OR CDO TYPE PATTERN.  THE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SO SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  THE
FORECAST INTENSITY IS LEVELLED OFF AT 40 KNOTS BUT IF THE CONVECTION
BECOMES WELL ORGANIZED THE SYSTEM COULD GET STRONGER THAN THAT.

THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST AVN DEEP LAYER MEAN
WIND FORECAST...THE NHC91...THE DEEP BAM AND THE QLM GUIDANCE.  AS
IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED.  THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. 

PASCH 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0900Z 11.6N 137.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     06/1800Z 11.7N 139.7W    35 KTS
24HR VT     07/0600Z 11.8N 142.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     07/1800Z 12.0N 144.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     08/0600Z 12.3N 146.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     09/0600Z 13.0N 149.5W    40 KTS