ZCZC MIAWRKPD4 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 1992
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TSAF AND SAB REMAIN AT
2.0...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS STILL 30 KT.  THE TD IS MOVING
TOWARD 280/12 KT.

THE 1200 UTC AVN MODEL INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION WILL BUILD WESTWARD TO NEAR 130W OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WHILE A CUT OFF LOW REMAINS NEAR 30N 145W. THIS PATTERN WOULD
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD COMPONENT.  THE TRACK MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH THAT TREND. THE BAMD EVEN SHOWS WSW MOTION AFTER
ABOUT 24 HOURS...MUCH LIKE HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST 4 SYSTEMS.  THIS
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST IS RETAINED.
  
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0300Z 14.0N 118.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     27/1200Z 14.3N 120.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     28/0000Z 14.5N 122.2W    45 KTS
36HR VT     28/1200Z 14.6N 124.5W    55 KTS
48HR VT     29/0000Z 14.6N 126.7W    55 KTS
72HR VT     30/0000Z 14.5N 131.5W    55 KTS