ZCZC MIAWRKPD3 LOC
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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN JUL 19 1992

AN EYE HAS BEEN OCCASIONALLY SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN NEAR 80 KNOTS.

LATEST FIXES SHOW THAT GEORGETTE HAS BEEN MOVING IN A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION...NEAR 7 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BECAUSE OF THE CHANGE IN INITIAL
MOTION.  THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTION
MODELS...SOME OF WHICH SHOW A TRACK EVEN FARTHER TO THE LEFT.  EVEN
THOUGH THE HURRICANE HAS RECENTLY SLOWED IN ITS FORWARD MOTION...THE
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING
THE PERIOD AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS WELL. 
BECAUSE THE PROJECTED TRACK OF GEORGETTE IS NOT AS FAR TO THE NORTH
AS EARLIER EXPECTED...THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A
SLOW WEAKENING AND MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM AS A HURRICANE THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0300Z 18.6N 116.2W    80 KTS
12HR VT     20/1200Z 18.8N 117.3W    80 KTS
24HR VT     21/0000Z 19.0N 119.0W    75 KTS
36HR VT     21/1200Z 19.3N 121.0W    70 KTS
48HR VT     22/0000Z 19.5N 123.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     23/0000Z 19.5N 127.5W    65 KTS