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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 1992
 
THE APPEARANCE OF GEORGETTE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS
HURRICANE MAY BE IN A LESS THAN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER
STRENGTHENING.  THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SHEARED SOMEWHAT FROM THE
WEST BY HURRICANE FRANK...AND IS ALSO MOVING OVER WATERS LIKELY
COOLED RECENTLY BY UPWELLING.  THE EYE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT. 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 95 KT.  MOTION STARTS OUT AT 295/13 KT.

THE WNW MOTION DOES NOT JIVE WELL WITH THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG HIGH
TOWARD THE NW...AND IMPLIES THAT THE NORTHWARD COMPONENT MAY AT
LEAST PARTLY BE DUE TO AN INTERACTION WITH FRANK.  THE TRACK MODELS
MAINTAIN THE WNW TO NW HEADING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO P91E BUT OFFSET A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REST OF THE
GUIDANCE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIFOR.

RAPPAPORT
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/0900Z 16.3N 109.9W    95 KTS
12HR VT     18/1800Z 17.0N 111.8W    95 KTS
24HR VT     19/0600Z 17.8N 114.6W    95 KTS
36HR VT     19/1800Z 18.5N 117.2W    90 KTS
48HR VT     20/0600Z 19.0N 119.9W    85 KTS
72HR VT     21/0600Z 19.5N 124.0W    75 KTS