ZCZC MIAWRKPD3 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 1992
 
GEORGETTE HAS NOT CHANGED IN INTENSITY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. THERE IS AN EYE
TYPE FEATURE BUT IT IS NOT WELL DEFINED AND THE OUTFLOW IS PRIMARILY
TO THE EAST. 

INITIAL MOTION IS STILL 300/12. THIS TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A TURN TO THE LEFT IS LIKELY
AS A DEEP LAYER MEAN HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THIS
TRACK IS IN AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE HEAVILY BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.

AVILA

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/0300Z 15.8N 108.5W   100 KTS
12HR VT     18/1200Z 16.6N 110.1W   100 KTS
24HR VT     19/0000Z 17.4N 112.3W   100 KTS
36HR VT     19/1200Z 18.2N 114.4W   100 KTS
48HR VT     20/0000Z 19.0N 116.5W   100 KTS
72HR VT     21/0000Z 20.0N 121.0W    90 KTS