ZCZC MIAWRKPD3 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU JUL 16 1992
 
A BURSTING OF CONVECTION OCCURRING AT THE CENTER OF GEORGETTE MADE
CENTER POSITIONING DIFFICULT AT 0600 UTC.  HOWEVER...THE LAST
SEVERAL FIXES INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED MORE TOWARD THE
WEST...270/9 KT. INITIAL INTENSITY IS STILL 65 KT. THE 34 KT RADIUS
IS EXPANDED TO THE NE AND NW TO ACCOMODATE A 30 KT WIND REPORTED BY
SHIP VVGC...200 NM NNE OF THE CYCLONE CENTER AT 0300 UTC.

THE 0000 UTC AVN MODEL BUILDS A STRONG AND LARGE DLM RIDGE TO THE N
THROUGH NW OF THE CYCLONE.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH
THAT PATTERN AND INDICATES A W TO...IN THE CASE OF BAMD...EVEN A SW
MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL
MOTION OF ABOUT WNW/10 KT.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS DIRECTED GENERALLY
WESTWARD.  THE ONLY CHANCE FOR A MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT WOULD
APPEAR TO BE THE UNLIKELY EVENT OF GEORGETTE INTERACTING MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH FRANK.

NO CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MADE IN THIS ADVISORY.

RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0900Z 13.1N 101.6W    65 KTS
12HR VT     16/1800Z 13.0N 103.0W    75 KTS
24HR VT     17/0600Z 13.0N 104.9W    85 KTS
36HR VT     17/1800Z 13.1N 107.0W    90 KTS
48HR VT     18/0600Z 13.4N 109.0W    90 KTS
72HR VT     19/0600Z 14.5N 113.0W    90 KTS