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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 1992
 

FRANK IS A POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 125 KNOTS.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A VERY DISTINCT AND IMPRESSIVE EYE SURROUNDED
BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. THERE WERE SOME INDICATION OF A DOUBLE
EYEWALL ON VISIBLE IMAGES EARLIER THIS EVENING. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY MAY OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS LIKELY THEREAFTER AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES COOLER
WATERS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  

INITIAL MOTION IS 270/12. A DEEP LAYER MEAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST.
THEREFORE...THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL WEST NORTHWEST TURN AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BASICALLY...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FOLLOWS CLIMATOLOGY
AND IT IS SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE BAM MODELS.  


AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/0300Z 15.8N 120.0W   125 KTS
12HR VT     18/1200Z 15.8N 121.9W   125 KTS
24HR VT     19/0000Z 16.0N 124.2W   120 KTS
36HR VT     19/1200Z 16.3N 126.5W   110 KTS
48HR VT     20/0000Z 16.8N 129.0W   100 KTS
72HR VT     21/0000Z 17.5N 134.0W    90 KTS