ZCZC MIAWRKPD2 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU JUL 16 1992
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INCLUDING OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS INDICATE
THAT THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 100 KNOTS. THE EYE HAS BECOME WELL
DEFINED AND THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS.
SINCE FRANK IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS AND UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THE HURRICANE MAY CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.    

INITIAL MOTION IS 270/08. THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
THEREAFTER.  THEN...THE HURRICANE MAY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
WHILE LOCATED SOUTH OF AN EXPANDING DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE. THIS
FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS. 
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/2100Z 16.1N 114.2W   100 KTS
12HR VT     17/0600Z 16.1N 115.4W   110 KTS
24HR VT     17/1800Z 16.1N 117.3W   110 KTS
36HR VT     18/0600Z 16.5N 119.8W   100 KTS
48HR VT     18/1800Z 17.5N 122.0W    90 KTS
72HR VT     19/1800Z 19.0N 127.0W    80 KTS