ZCZC MIAWRKPD2 LOC
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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 1992

THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING. TAKING THE AVERAGE OF SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AIR FORCE GLOBAL WEATHER CENTRAL...SYNOPTIC
ANALYSIS BRANCH AND NHC GIVES 40 KNOTS.  THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS
BEING NAMED ON THIS ADVISORY.  THERE IS STRONG UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND ABUNDANTLY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE STORM.  THUS IT IS
REASONABLE TO ASSUME THAT FRANK WILL REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN ABOUT
A DAY...WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER.    

BASED ON ADDITIONAL FIXES THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE CENTER HAS
BEEN SHIFTED NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY BUT THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS
THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WEST AT 7 KNOTS.  THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS SINCE A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF
FRANK FOR A WHILE.

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0900Z 14.1N 108.3W    40 KTS
12HR VT     14/1800Z 14.2N 109.3W    55 KTS
24HR VT     15/0600Z 14.2N 110.7W    65 KTS
36HR VT     15/1800Z 14.3N 112.3W    75 KTS
48HR VT     16/0600Z 14.5N 114.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     17/0600Z 15.0N 118.0W   100 KTS