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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT JUL 11 1992
 
ALTHOUGH THE EYE CAN NOT BE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGES AT THIS
TIME...ESTELLE IS DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURES WITH VERY DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS ALSO
IMPROVED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS.  SAB AND TSAF ESTIMATED WINDS ARE
70 KNOTS.  ESTELLE IS MOVING WESTWARD OVER WARM WATERS AND UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT SO THE
HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.

INITIAL MOTION IS 265/09.  AVIATION MODEL CONTINUES TO FORECAST A
DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE NORTH OF ESTELLE.  THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
ESTELLE ON A WESTWARD MOTION AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACKS INDICATED BY GUIDANCE
BUT IN AGREEMENT WITH A TURN MORE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AT THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

AVILA 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/0900Z 11.7N 117.6W    70 KTS
12HR VT     11/1800Z 11.7N 119.0W    75 KTS
24HR VT     12/0600Z 11.7N 120.9W    80 KTS
36HR VT     12/1800Z 11.9N 122.6W    85 KTS
48HR VT     13/0600Z 12.5N 125.0W    90 KTS
72HR VT     14/0600Z 14.0N 129.0W    90 KTS