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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI JUL 10 1992
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION...MAKING THE
CENTER FIX FROM INFRARED DATA A LITTLE UNCERTAIN.  BEST GUESS AT
INITIAL MOTION IS 270/09.  THE NMC AVIATION MODEL ACTUALLY BUILDS
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ESTELLE...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON
A WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
CURRENT TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE MODELS.
 
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN SATELLITE
ESTIMATES FROM VARIOUS ANALYSTS.  ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL FEATURES ARE
NOT WELL DEFINED AT THE MOMENT... THE SHEAR SEEMS TO HAVE RELAXED
SOME.  THEREFORE...CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...ALONG THE
LINES OF SHIFOR.  ALTHOUGH THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
LOCATED TO THE EAST OF ESTELLE IS NOT AFFECTING THE CYCLONE AT THE
PRESENT TIME...DEVELOPMENT OF ESTELLE COULD BE INHIBITED IN THE
FUTURE IF THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO THE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER.
 
MAYFIELD
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/1500Z 12.4N 114.7W    45 KTS
12HR VT     11/0000Z 12.4N 116.0W    50 KTS
24HR VT     11/1200Z 12.6N 117.8W    50 KTS
36HR VT     12/0000Z 13.0N 119.7W    55 KTS
48HR VT     12/1200Z 13.5N 121.8W    55 KTS
72HR VT     13/1200Z 15.0N 126.0W    60 KTS