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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU JUL 09 1992
 
ESTELLE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...PERHAPS AIDED BY AN
OUFLOW JET DIRECTED NNE TOWARD A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW DETECTED
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
THE STORM IS NOW ON A LITTLE ON A TRACK DIRECTED A BIT MORE TO THE
WEST...280/11 KT.
 
THE 12 UTC AVN MODEL DLM FORECAST BUILDS A STRONG RIDGE NEAR 20N
120W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS DEVELOPMENT WOULD PRECLUDE A
SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD TURN AND ALSO GENERALLY FAVOR INTENSIFICATION. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INCORPORATES THOSE CHARACTERISTICS AND IS
SIMILAR TO THE MODEL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/0300Z 12.8N 113.4W    40 KTS
12HR VT     10/1200Z 13.0N 115.1W    45 KTS
24HR VT     11/0000Z 13.4N 117.3W    50 KTS
36HR VT     11/1200Z 13.9N 119.6W    55 KTS
48HR VT     12/0000Z 14.5N 121.7W    55 KTS
72HR VT     13/0000Z 16.0N 125.0W    60 KTS