ZCZC MIAWRKPD1 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU JUL 09 1992
 

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS DEVELOPED SOME
BANDING FEATURES THEREFORE...IT HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM.  ESTELLE IS STILL EMBEDDED IN SOME SHEARING ENVIRONMENT SO
THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED.  HOWEVER...LATEST 200 MB AVIATION
FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR MAY RELAX SO A GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 285/10.  THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS INDICATED BY MODELS WHICH IN FACT
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. 
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/2100Z 12.7N 111.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     10/0600Z 13.1N 113.3W    35 KTS
24HR VT     10/1800Z 13.7N 115.2W    40 KTS
36HR VT     11/0600Z 14.2N 117.2W    45 KTS
48HR VT     11/1800Z 14.5N 119.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     12/1800Z 16.0N 123.5W    55 KTS