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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED JUL 08 1992
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST
OF ACAPULCO HAS STRENGTHENED TO BECOME TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E.
THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION IS 295/11 KT.

ALL THE TRACK MODELS SHOW A WNW MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES AS WELL AND IS CLOSEST TO THE NHC91E AND
PSS...WITH THE BAM MODELS AND PSDE SEVERAL KTS FASTER. DESPITE THE
APPARENT AGREEMENT OF FORECASTS...A MORE NORTHWARD TURN IS POSSIBLE
IF THE DEPRESSION INTERACTS WITH THE BROAD CIRCULATION STILL
ACCOMPANYING DARBY WELL TO THE NORTH...OR IF THE 1200 UTC AVN MODEL
IS UNDERPLAYING THE FORECAST TROUGHING ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST.

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
LEAVING THE EASTERN PART OF ITS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION EXPOSED.  THE
SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...
ALLOWING FOR INTENSIFICATION AT A RATE PROBABLY SLOWER THAN
INDICATED BY SHIFOR. 
 
 
RAPPAPORT
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/0300Z 12.0N 108.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     09/1200Z 12.7N 110.5W    30 KTS
24HR VT     10/0000Z 13.4N 112.4W    35 KTS
36HR VT     10/1200Z 14.2N 114.4W    40 KTS
48HR VT     11/0000Z 14.8N 116.1W    45 KTS
72HR VT     12/0000Z 16.0N 119.0W    50 KTS