ZCZC MIAWRKPD4 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED JUN 24 1992
 

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CELIA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND THE
WINDS ARE UP TO 70 KNOTS.  THE HURRICANE HAS VERY DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER AND WELL DEFINED BANDING FEATURES. THE OUTFLOW IS
EXCELLENT AND LATEST 200 MB FORECAST SHOWS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AT
LEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...CELIA WILL BE APPROACHING
AN AREA OF INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. 

INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280/10.  THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD SINCE THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. THE RIDGE IS QUITE STRONG
SO CELIA MAY TAKE A MORE WESTERLY COURSE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE BAM MODELS.  STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SAME W TO WNW TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS.    

AVILA 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0300Z 13.5N 102.3W    70 KTS
12HR VT     25/1200Z 13.7N 103.8W    75 KTS
24HR VT     26/0000Z 14.2N 105.8W    85 KTS
36HR VT     26/1200Z 14.5N 107.7W    90 KTS
48HR VT     27/0000Z 15.0N 110.0W    90 KTS
72HR VT     28/0000Z 15.5N 113.5W    85 KTS