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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED JUN 24 1992
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/11...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  ALL GUIDANCE MODELS SHOWS A CONTINUED MOSTLY WESTWARD
MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH THE STATISTICALLY BASED MODELS SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL ONES.
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED BANDING AND A DECENT CDO AND
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS NOW UP TO 55 KNOTS.  OFFICIAL INTENSITY
GOES ALONG WITH THIS AND CELIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ANY TIME
NOW.
 
34 KNOT WIND RADII ARE INCREASED TO 100 NAUTICAL MILES BASED ON
RATHER DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING FAR OUT FROM THE STORM CENTER.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/1500Z 13.0N 100.7W    55 KTS
12HR VT     25/0000Z 13.3N 102.4W    65 KTS
24HR VT     25/1200Z 13.7N 104.6W    70 KTS
36HR VT     26/0000Z 14.0N 106.6W    75 KTS
48HR VT     26/1200Z 14.4N 108.5W    80 KTS
72HR VT     27/1200Z 15.0N 112.0W    90 KTS