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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON JUN 22 1992
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E APPEARS RAGGED LOOKING ON VISIBLE
IMAGERY.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS OVER WARM WATER AND THE UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW IS PROGGED TO BECOME EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.  THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING
TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION IS 275/13.  THE AVIATION MODEL INDICATES THE DEEP
LAYER MEAN FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST.  CURRENT TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE MODELS.

MAYFIELD
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/2100Z 11.6N  93.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     23/0600Z 11.8N  95.2W    35 KTS
24HR VT     23/1800Z 12.3N  97.1W    45 KTS
36HR VT     24/0600Z 12.8N  98.7W    55 KTS
48HR VT     24/1800Z 13.2N 100.3W    65 KTS
72HR VT     25/1800Z 14.0N 104.0W    75 KTS