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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON JUN 22 1992
 
THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT PASSED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE
WEEKEND HAS DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  SATELLITE
ANALYSTS AT BOTH NHC AND SAB ARE CLASSIFYING THE SYSTEM BASED ON THE
DVORAK TECHNIQUE AND SHIP REPORTS CONFIRM THAT THE CIRCULATION IS ON
THE SURFACE.  THE DEPRESSION IS OVER 29C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATER DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  SINCE
THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS PROGGED TO BE FAVORABLE ON THE AVIATION
MODEL...WE WILL INDICATE CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION IS 280/15...BUT SOME CENTER RELOCATION MAY BE
NECESSARY AS MORE VISIBLE IMAGES BECOME AVAILABLE.  TRACK PREDICTION
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING CONTINUED WEST TO WEST
NORTHWEST MOTION ALTHOUGH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED.
 
MAYFIELD
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/1500Z 11.6N  92.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     23/0000Z 12.0N  94.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     23/1200Z 12.5N  96.6W    45 KTS
36HR VT     24/0000Z 13.0N  98.5W    55 KTS
48HR VT     24/1200Z 13.5N 100.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     25/1200Z 14.5N 103.5W    75 KTS