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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON JUN 22 1992
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE DISTURBED AREA THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS RANGE FROM T1.5 TO T2.0 AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL GO WITH 30 KNOTS.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BECOME
MARGINAL AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THEREFORE...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH LEVELING OFF THEREAFTER.

INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10 AND MID LEVEL FIELDS FROM NMC AVIATION
MODEL SUGGEST THIS SAME GENERAL MOTION SHOULD PERSIST ALTHOUGH WITH
SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  FORECAST TRACK IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH TRACK PREDICTION MODELS.  SOME RELOCATION OF THE
CENTER POSITION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER MORE VISIBLE PICS BECOME
AVAILABLE.
 
MAYFIELD
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/1500Z 16.6N 111.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     23/0000Z 17.5N 112.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     23/1200Z 18.2N 114.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     24/0000Z 18.9N 115.3W    45 KTS
48HR VT     24/1200Z 19.5N 116.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     25/1200Z 20.5N 118.5W    45 KTS