ZCZC MIAWRKPD1 LOC
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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON JUN 01 1992
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM AGATHA BASED
ON A SHIP REPORT OF 1004 MB JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH NESDIS SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS BRANCH AND THE NHC OF
35 KNOTS.  THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE
STORM REMAINS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPS.  THEREFORE...CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST AS IN PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/06.  CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN GUIDANCE MODELS...WITH THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY AT
THE LONGER TIME PERIODS.  WHILE THE MORNING RAOB FROM MANZANILLO
MEXICO SHOWED SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN 850 AND 500 MB...THE 00Z RUN
NOW SHOWS WEAK EASTERLIES AROUND 700 MB.  THIS SEEMS TO GIVE
CREDIBILITY TO THE NMC AVIATION RUN WHICH MOVES A WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGE WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF AGATHA.  IF THIS VERIFIES...THE
CENTER OF THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE.
 
MAYFIELD
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/0300Z 12.7N 102.6W    35 KTS
12HR VT     02/1200Z 13.5N 103.0W    40 KTS
24HR VT     03/0000Z 14.3N 103.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     03/1200Z 15.0N 104.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     04/0000Z 15.5N 104.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     05/0000Z 16.5N 105.5W    70 KTS