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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
130 AM PDT SAT JUN 29 1991
 
ATTN WSFOS NMC F/D
 
NESDIS SAB AND NHC HAVE BOTH CLASSIFIED THE DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC A T2.0....WHILE THE AIR FORCE GLOBAL WEATHER CENTRAL
HAS NOW STARTED WITH A T1.O.  A SHIP AT 0000 UTC REPORTED 1008 MB
WITH A NORTHWEST WIND JUST WEST OF THE APPARENT CENTER.  PERSISTENT
CLOUD PATTERN WARRANTS STARTING ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
 
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE CENTER LOCATION ON A WEAK
SYSTEM BASED ON INFRARED IMAGERY AND SOME RELOCATING MAY BE
NECESSARY WHEN VISIBLE PICS COME IN.  INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
310/07 AND THE MID AND DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS SAME
GENERAL MOTION.  THIS SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION OVER LAND
AND INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.
 
 
MAYFIELD
 
 
PRELIMINARY PROG POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0930Z 14.9N  94.9W    30 KTS.
12HR VT     29/1800Z 15.6N  95.8W    30 KTS.
24HR VT     30/0600Z 16.5N  97.0W    25 KTS INLAND.
36HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED.