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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
130 PM PDT THU SEP 12 1991
 
ATTN WSFOS NMC F/D
 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TSAF AND SAB FOR THE DISTURBANCE SW OF
MANZANILLO ARE 1.5/1.5...AND THERE IS SOME NEW AND PERSISTING
CONVECTION NEAR THE APPARENT CIRCULATION CENTER.  HENCE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED. THE INITIAL MOTION...
BASED ON A LIMITED STORM HISTORY...IS ESTIMATED AT 315 DEGREES AT
ABOUT 6 KT.

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE DEPRESSION IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.  IT IS...AND WILL PROBABLY REMAIN...LOCATED JUST EAST
OF THE AXIS OF A SHARP TROUGH...UNDER 30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT.  THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR THE SYSTEM...BUT..AT THE
SAME TIME ADVECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN INTO WESTERN MEXICO...CREATING
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING. PUBLIC ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT. 

THE TRACK MODELS DIVERGE.  THE SHALLOW BAM...CLIPER...AND
STATISTICAL SYNOPTIC MODELS MAINTAIN THE CURRENT NORTHWEST
MOTION...AS WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR A SHEARED SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...THE
MEDIUM AND DEEP LAYER BAMS TURN VERY QUICKLY TO THE NORTH...AND ARE
MOST APPROPRIATE FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE
ANOTHER INDICATION OF THE PRESENCE OF A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK STARTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND LATER TURNS TOWARD THE
NORTH...JUST IN CASE THE SHEAR UNEXPECTEDLY DECREASES AND THE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENS. 

RAPPAPORT
 
PRELIMINARY PROG POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/2100Z 18.0N 107.3W    30 KTS.
12HR VT     13/0600Z 18.7N 108.0W    30 KTS.
24HR VT     13/1800Z 19.5N 108.6W    30 KTS.
36HR VT     14/0600Z 20.4N 108.9W    30 KTS.
48HR VT     14/1800Z 21.5N 109.1W    30 KTS.
72HR VT     15/1800Z 23.0N 109.1W    30 KTS.