ZCZC MIAWRKPD1 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
630 AM PST THU NOV 07 1991
 
ATTN WSFOS NMC F/D
 
BASED ON TSAF SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION OF T2.5/2.5 AT 1200Z...WE ARE
UPGRADING THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO A TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME.
THE SYSTEM LOOKS IMPRESSIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION...BASED ON ONLY 12 HOURS OF FIXES... IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 295/12 KNOTS.  SINCE WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED THE OUTPUT FROM THE
DYNAMIC TRACK FORECAST MODELS BY ADVISORY TIME... WE WILL  MAINTAIN
THE PREVIOUS TRACK SCENARIO WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE ON THE BASIS OF
THE 07/0000Z AVN RUN.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW FAVORABLE UPPER CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT.  THUS THE PREVIOUS STRENGTH FORECAST IS MERELY UPDATED.

GERRISH

 
 
PRELIMINARY PROG POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/1500Z 11.3N 107.0W    35 KTS.
12HR VT     08/0000Z 11.8N 108.5W    40 KTS.
24HR VT     08/1200Z 12.4N 110.0W    45 KTS.
36HR VT     09/0000Z 12.5N 112.0W    50 KTS.
48HR VT     09/1200Z 12.5N 113.5W    55 KTS.
72HR VT     10/1200Z 12.5N 115.5W    60 KTS.