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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
130 AM PDT TUE JUL 16 1991
 
ATTN WSFOS NMC F/D

ENRIQUE APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING WITH A PERSISTENT COLD CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST GIVING A 5.0 OBJECTIVE T NUMBER AND TSAF IS UP TO A
3.0 CURRENT INTENSITY WHILE SAB HAS A 2.5 PLUS.  INITIAL WIND SPEED
IS INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS AND STORM IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN 36 HOURS AS AVIATION MODEL SHOWS DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM ADVANCING WESTWARD WITH THE STORM THROUGH
48 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/15 AND ALL GUIDANCE MODELS CONTINUE
THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH SLIGHT DECELERATION...THROUGH 72 HOURS.

LAWRENCE
 
PRELIMINARY PROG POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0900Z 10.6N 116.8W    40 KTS.
12HR VT     16/1800Z 11.2N 118.9W    50 KTS.
24HR VT     17/0600Z 11.8N 121.5W    60 KTS.
36HR VT     17/1800Z 12.4N 123.7W    65 KTS.
48HR VT     18/0600Z 13.0N 126.0W    65 KTS.
72HR VT     19/0600Z 14.0N 130.5W    65 KTS.