ZCZC MIAWRKPD1 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
730 PM PDT MON JUL 15 1991
 
ATTN WSFOS NMC F/D
 
SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT SIX-E STRENGTHENED THIS EVENING...
WITH SPIRAL BANDS DEVELOPING AROUND INTENSE CONVECTION NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER.  BASED ON ITS APPEARANCE OF IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION AND THE TSAF DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF 2.5/2.5...THE
SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE...PRONOUNCED AHN
REE KAY. ENRIQUE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WNW AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS.
 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK
GUIDANCE...WHICH IN TURN IS LIKE CLIMATOLOGY AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
 
ENRIQUE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TO BE AFFECTED LITTLE BY
MID LATITUDE FEATURES...THE CLOSEST BEING THE UPPER TROUGH NOW ALONG
ABOUT 135W.  THE STORM IS THEREFORE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS
SUGGESTED BY CLIMATOLOGY...SHIFOR...DURING THAT PERIOD. THE SYSTEM
IS RATHER LARGE AND THE WIND SPEED CONTOUR RADII HAVE BEEN SET
ACCORDINGLY.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
 
PRELIMINARY PROG POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0300Z 10.6N 115.3W    35 KTS.
12HR VT     16/1200Z 11.3N 117.3W    40 KTS.
24HR VT     17/0000Z 12.1N 119.7W    50 KTS.
36HR VT     17/1200Z 12.7N 122.0W    55 KTS.
48HR VT     18/0000Z 13.2N 124.5W    60 KTS.
72HR VT     19/0000Z 14.0N 129.5W    65 KTS.