ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 11 1995
 
TAFB AND SAB SPLIT ON CLASSIFICATIONS WITH TAFB GOING FOR A STRONG
2.0 AND SAB FOR 2.5.  WE WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY AT 30 MPH.  THE
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IMPROVING ALONG THE TRACK...THUS THIS MIGHT HAVE
BEEN THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY TO NAME THIS DEPRESSION.  WE STILL DO NOT
EXPECT MORE THAN A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM...IF THAT..WE WILL
THEREFORE TAKE IT TO STORM STRENGTH AND HOLD IT THERE EXCEPT BACK
DOWN TO A TD IN 72H TO INDICATE THAT THE MAX...WHATEVER IT IS...WILL
HAVE PASSED.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWEST...AND THIS WILL PROBABLY BECOME A
RECURVATURE PATH.  THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS THE DEEP LAYER MEAN
RIDGE BREAKS AND FORMS A HIGH CELL EAST OF THE DEPRESSION TAKING IT
NORTHWEST...THEN NORTH AND FINALLY NORTHEAST.  THE LATTER COULD
BECOME SOUTHEAST IF THE TIMING OR LOCATION IS SLIGHTLY OFF.  WE ARE
FOLLOWING A RECURVATURE TRACK INTO THE WESTERLIES...AND SPEED IT UP
ON A NORTHEAST HEADING AFTER 48H.
 
JARRELL
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/2100Z 24.9N  55.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     12/0600Z 26.1N  56.7W    35 KTS
24HR VT     12/1800Z 27.9N  58.5W    35 KTS
36HR VT     13/0600Z 29.7N  59.5W    35 KTS
48HR VT     13/1800Z 31.3N  59.7W    35 KTS
72HR VT     14/1800Z 35.2N  57.2W    35 KTS
 
 
NNNN