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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 11 1995
 
BOTH TAFB AND SAB CLASSIFY THE DISTURBANCE NEAR 23N 53W AS 2.0
THEREFORE WE ARE DECLARING IT A DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.  THE CENTER
IS ON THE EDGE OF THE OVERCAST...SO NO GREAT DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED.  WE WILL TAKE IT TO STORM STRENGTH AND HOLD IT THERE.

INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWEST...AND THIS WILL PROBABLY BECOME A
RECURVATURE PATH.  THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS THE RIDGE WEAKENING
TO PROVIDE A NORTHERLY PATH FOR THIS DISTURBANCE AND THEN BUILDING
IN SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION OVER TIME.  TRACK MODELS ALL
FORECAST RECURVATURE...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOW UNUSUAL...EASTWARD OR
SOUTHWARD...MOTION OVER THE THIRD DAY.  THIS APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE
TO A COLD LOW...NOW EAST OF THE SYSTEM...PROGGED TO MOVE TO ITS
SOUTH.
 
JARRELL
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/1500Z 23.8N  53.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     12/0000Z 25.0N  55.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     12/1200Z 26.6N  57.7W    35 KTS
36HR VT     13/0000Z 28.5N  59.0W    35 KTS
48HR VT     13/1200Z 30.0N  59.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     14/1200Z 32.5N  59.5W    35 KTS
 
 
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