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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM PABLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT OCT 07 1995

THERE IS A VERY LARGE BUT RAGGED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT
PERSISTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STORM.  IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCATE
A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ON INFRARED IMAGERY.  USING AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 270/15...AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...GIVES A POSITION ON
THE WEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  IF THE CENTER IS UNDER THE
DEEP CONVECTION...THEN THE MOTION IS MUCH SLOWER.  SINCE A STRONGER
STORM GOES ALONG WITH SLOWER MOTION...THERE IS STILL SOME TIME
BEFORE A WATCH IS NEEDED FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN.

THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT...SHOWING A WEST
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE AND THIS PUTS THE CENTER
NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES IN 48 HOURS AND NEAR PUERTO RICO IN 72
HOURS.  

BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION AND...THEREFORE...IN THE
INTENSITY...THE WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS THROUGH 72 HOURS. 
THE SHIFOR MODEL SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE FOR 72 HOURS WHILE THE SHIPS95
MODEL...BASED ON VICBAR...INDICATES VERY LARGE VERTICAL SHEAR AND
DISSIPATION IN 72 HOURS.  THE 00Z GLOBAL SPECTRAL AVIATION
MODEL...IN CONTRAST...SHOWS A RELAXATION OF THE STRONG SHEARING
PATTERN.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0900Z 12.5N  51.2W    45 KTS
12HR VT     07/1800Z 12.7N  53.2W    45 KTS
24HR VT     08/0600Z 13.4N  55.8W    45 KTS
36HR VT     08/1800Z 14.5N  58.2W    45 KTS
48HR VT     09/0600Z 15.5N  60.6W    45 KTS
72HR VT     10/0600Z 18.0N  65.5W    45 KTS
 
 
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