ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM PABLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI OCT 06 1995

THE CENTER OF PABLO BECAME EXPOSED EARLIER TODAY BUT VERY DEEP
CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR AND VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER...SO
WINDS ARE KEPT AT 45 KNOTS. IT IS QUITE A SURPRISE TO SEE HOW THIS
SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF IN SPITE OF THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
BLOWING INTO IT.  MODELS INSIST ON LIGHTER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DURING
THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS.  IF IT VERIFIES...PABLO COULD
STRENGTHEN.  HOWEVER... CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGES SHOW NO
SIGNS OF WEAKENING OF THE WESTERLIES AT ALL AT THIS TIME AND IN FACT
...THE LOW LEVEL CENTER MAY BECOME EXPOSED AGAIN DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.  UNTIL A TREND BECOMES ESTABLISHED...THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT
45 KNOTS.
  
INITIAL MOTION IS 270/15.  ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING
PABLO WEST AND WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BETWEEN 48
AND 72 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  RESIDENTS IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PABLO.

IF...UNLIKELY...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HOLDS ITS INTENSITY...WATCHES
OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON SATURDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0300Z 12.4N  49.7W    45 KTS
12HR VT     07/1200Z 12.7N  51.9W    45 KTS
24HR VT     08/0000Z 13.5N  54.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     08/1200Z 14.5N  57.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     09/0000Z 16.0N  60.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     10/0000Z 18.5N  65.0W    45 KTS
 
 
NNNN