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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM PABLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI OCT 06 1995
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE CONTINUES TO BE 285/18.  THE GUDANCE MODELS
INDICATE THE SAME GENERAL HEADING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS
WITH SOME DECELERATION AS A RIDGE PERSISTS TO THE NORTH OF THE
STORM.

AS OF 06Z...USING METEOSAT IMAGERY...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES KEPT
PABLO AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.  THE SHIFOR AND SHIPS95 INTENSITY FORECASTS
SHOW NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING BUT THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BROUGHT
PABLO TO A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DELAYS THIS
TO 36 HOURS ONLY BECAUSE THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ANY STRENGTHENING
OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THERE IS A BANDING
FEATURE FORMING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST
HOUR...SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS.

LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0900Z 11.8N  42.9W    50 KTS
12HR VT     06/1800Z 12.3N  45.1W    55 KTS
24HR VT     07/0600Z 13.0N  48.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     07/1800Z 13.6N  50.2W    65 KTS
48HR VT     08/0600Z 14.1N  52.3W    65 KTS
72HR VT     09/0600Z 15.7N  56.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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