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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM PABLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU OCT 05 1995
 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 50 KNOTS ACCORDING TO SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE
FUTURE INTENSITY OF PABLO IS RATHER UNCERTAIN.  CURRENTLY...THE
STORM HAS A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW BUT STRONG UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THESE WESTERLIES WILL PROBABLY INHIBIT THE INTENSIFICATION OF
PABLO.  NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THESE WESTERLIES WILL RELAX
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  IN FACT...THE WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME NORTHEASTERLIES WHICH ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION.   HOWEVER...IT IS HARD TO ACCEPT SUCH A CHANGE
GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES CURRENTLY OBSERVED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGES AND RAOB DATA.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR PABLO TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 285/18.  MOST OF THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE
GFDL...SUGGEST THAT THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT 72
HOURS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND SO DOES THE OFFICAL
FORECAST.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. 

AVILA 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0300Z 11.4N  41.6W    50 KTS
12HR VT     06/1200Z 12.2N  44.5W    60 KTS
24HR VT     07/0000Z 13.0N  47.5W    65 KTS
36HR VT     07/1200Z 14.0N  50.0W    65 KTS
48HR VT     08/0000Z 14.5N  52.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     09/0000Z 15.0N  55.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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