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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM PABLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU OCT 05 1995

UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER
PABLO.  BANDING FEATURES ARE FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AT THIS TIME. 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO 45
KNOTS.  FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND...AT THE CURRENT RATE
OF DEVELOPMENT....PABLO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. 
LATER ON IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...INTENSIFICATION COULD BE INHIBITED
BY UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES.

CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/20.  OUR OBJECTIVE TRACK GUIDANCE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THIS WNW
MOTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE...AND IS SIMILAR TO THAT
FROM OUR PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/2100Z 11.0N  40.0W    45 KTS
12HR VT     06/0600Z 11.9N  42.5W    55 KTS
24HR VT     06/1800Z 12.8N  45.5W    65 KTS
36HR VT     07/0600Z 13.5N  48.0W    65 KTS
48HR VT     07/1800Z 14.2N  50.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     08/1800Z 15.5N  54.0W    65 KTS
 
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